Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES)
Funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Innovation Programme, TiPES is a consortium of more than 15 institutions across Europe. Bringing together different expertise from a wide range of scientific subjects, TiPES aims to provide new fundamental insights into tipping points at the global scale
Dynamical systems analysis: Using a recently-developed method (Faranda et al., 2017; 2020) we are able to quantify joint recurrences in the phase-space for two (or more) atmospheric variables. The extreme values of these joint recurrences are termed as ‘compound dynamical extremes’ (CDEs) and they reflect compound meteorological events (Faranda et al., 2020; De Luca et al., 2020a-b).
Recurrences in the phase-space. Source: Faranda et al. (2020).
Recurrences in the phase-space illustrated for a simplified chaotic system. Left: zoom on a state with large local dimensionality (the system can evolve to many different type of new states); and right: a low-dimensional and slowly evolving state with large persistence. Source: Coumou and De Luca (2020).
Other methods: extreme value theory, causal inference, machine learning and time series analysis
Coumou, D. and De Luca, P.: Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-40, in review, 2020
De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., and Coumou, D.: Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020b
Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. QJR Meteorol Soc., 146: 1636– 1650, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3757, 2020a, , , and .:
Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Yiou, P.: Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim Dyn 54, 2187–2201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05106-3, 2020
Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Yiou, P.: Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Sci Rep 7, 41278, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278, 2017