Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES)
Funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Innovation Programme, TiPES is a consortium of more than 15 institutions across Europe. Bringing together different expertise from a wide range of scientific subjects, TiPES aims to provide new fundamental insights into tipping points at the global scale
Dynamical systems analysis: Using a recently-developed method (Faranda et al., 2020) we are able to quantify joint recurrences in the phase-space for two (or more) atmospheric variables. The extreme values of these joint recurrences are termed as ‘compound dynamical extremes’ and they reflect compound meteorological events (Faranda et al., 2020; De Luca et al., 2020).
Recurrences in the phase-space. Source: Faranda et al. (2020)
Other methods: Extreme value theory, Time series analysis
De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., and Coumou, D.: Compound Hot-Dry and Cold-Wet Dynamical Extremes Over the Mediterranean, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-21, in review, 2020.