Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES)

Extremes, physical drivers and impacts
In this project (https://www.tipes.dk/) our focus is to quantify causes, mechanisms and impacts of tipping points and associated extremes under future climate and abrupt forcing, with an emphasis on compound events over the Mediterranean region

Funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Innovation Programme, TiPES is a consortium of more than 15 institutions across Europe. Bringing together different expertise from a wide range of scientific subjects, TiPES aims to provide new fundamental insights into tipping points at the global scale


Dynamical systems analysis: Using a recently-developed method (Faranda et al., 2017; 2020) we are able to quantify joint recurrences in the phase-space for two (or more) atmospheric variables. The extreme values of these joint recurrences are termed as ‘compound dynamical extremes’ (CDEs) and they reflect compound meteorological events (Faranda et al., 2020; De Luca et al., 2020a-b).

Recurrences in the phase-space. Source: Faranda et al. (2020).


Recurrences in the phase-space illustrated for a simplified chaotic system. Left: zoom on a state with large local dimensionality (the system can evolve to many different type of new states); and right: a low-dimensional and slowly evolving state with large persistence. Source: Coumou and De Luca (2020).

Other methods: extreme value theory, causal inference, machine learning and time series analysis



Coumou, D. and De Luca, P.: Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-40, in review, 2020

De Luca, P., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Ward, P. J., and Coumou, D.: Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020b

Other references:

De Luca, P.Messori, G.Pons, F.M.E., and Faranda, D.: Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North AmericaQJR Meteorol Soc., 1461636– 1650, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3757, 2020a

Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Yiou, P.: Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America. Clim Dyn 54, 2187–2201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05106-3, 2020

Faranda, D., Messori, G., and Yiou, P.: Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Sci Rep 7, 41278, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278, 2017


post info

Get in touch with us

Dr. Dim Coumou

Department of Water & Climate Risk
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
VU Amsterdam
W&N-building, Room C-515
De Boelelaan 1087
1081 HV Amsterdam

Department of Earth System Analysis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Telegraphenberg A62, room S16
D-14473, Potsdam, Germany