IDEA – Improving Dynamical aspects of Extreme weather Attribution: A case study of the Western European flooding 2021

In July 2021 a cut-off low pressure system brought extreme precipitation to Western Europe. Record daily rainfall totals led to flooding that caused loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. Climate change is impacting summer rainfall events, leading to more intense rainfall.

Research Questions

  1. How does climate change affect the frequency, characteristics, and persistence of summer-time cut-off lows?
  2. How does climate change affect local dynamics of moist convergence and updraft?
  3. How can we make physics-informed attribution statements based upon dynamical insights gained from Q1 & 2?

Methods & Tools

  • Flow analogues of extreme events
  • Pseudo-global-warming
  • KNMI-LENTIS (large ensemble of global climate model simulations)
  • RACMO regional climate modelling


KNMI Collaborators

  • Sarah Kew
  • Geert Lenderink
  • Sjoukje Philip
  • Hylke de Vries
  • Karin van der Wiel
  • Izidine Pinto

post info

Get in touch with us

Dr. Dim Coumou

Department of Water & Climate Risk
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
VU Amsterdam
W&N-building, Room C-515
De Boelelaan 1087
1081 HV Amsterdam

Department of Earth System Analysis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Telegraphenberg A62, room S16
D-14473, Potsdam, Germany

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